A new nationwide analysis reveals a stark trend among Americans living in flood-prone areas: most are choosing to sell their high-risk properties on the open market rather than accept government buyouts. This practice transfers the danger of future flooding to new, often unsuspecting, residents and undermines long-term community resilience.
The study, which mapped the movements of over 70,000 people in buyout-eligible zones, found that for every homeowner who accepts a federal buyout to demolish their property, approximately 14 others sell their homes through conventional real estate transactions. This pattern persists even as climate change intensifies flood risks across the country.
Key Takeaways
- New research shows most residents in flood-prone areas sell their homes, transferring risk to new buyers.
- For every one homeowner accepting a federal buyout, 14 neighbors sell their property on the private market.
- The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) buyout program has purchased 45,000 high-risk homes, saving an estimated $4 to $6 for every $1 spent.
- Despite relocating, most families move only 5 to 10 miles away, staying within their local communities and moving to safer ground.
The Hidden Risk in the Housing Market
Across the United States, from coastal cities to inland towns, homeowners are facing the recurring nightmare of flooding. After the waters recede, many are left with a difficult decision: rebuild, sell, or seek a government buyout. While the desire to rebuild is strong, a growing number are choosing to move.
However, new data reveals that how they move is critical. Research from Rice University’s Center for Coastal Futures and Adaptive Resilience (CFAR) indicates the vast majority of these moves involve a private sale. This means the risk is not eliminated but simply passed on to the next owner.
This cycle of transferring risk leaves communities vulnerable. While the seller may escape future floods, the property remains, ready to be damaged again, requiring more disaster aid and putting new families in harm's way.
How Government Buyouts Work
The FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant Program funds voluntary buyouts for homes in high-risk flood zones. After a disaster, local governments can apply for funds to purchase damaged properties from willing owners at their pre-disaster market value. The homes are then demolished, and the land is permanently converted into open space, such as a park or natural floodplain, which helps mitigate future flood damage for the surrounding area.
A Tale of Two Relocations
Using an interactive mapping tool that tracked individual moves between 2007 and 2017, researchers analyzed relocation patterns in over 550 counties. The data paints a clear picture: buyouts are the exception, not the rule.
The findings imply that most Americans are retreating from climate-stressed areas by transferring their home’s risk to someone else, not by accepting buyouts that would take the property out of circulation.
In the Greater Houston area, a region hit hard by repeated flooding, the study showed significant variation. Homeowners in more affluent areas who sold their properties were often able to stay closer to their original neighborhoods compared to those in less privileged areas.
This distinction is crucial. A private sale benefits the individual seller but does little to improve the overall safety of the community. In contrast, a buyout permanently removes a high-risk structure, reducing the potential for future damage and recovery costs.
The Economic Case for Buyouts
The federal buyout program, primarily funded by FEMA, has proven to be a sound investment for taxpayers. Since its inception, the program has invested nearly $4 billion to acquire and demolish approximately 45,000 flood-prone homes nationwide.
A Strong Return on Investment
For every $1 invested in the FEMA property buyout program, research shows it avoids an estimated $4 to $6 in future disaster recovery spending. This makes it one of the most effective tools for long-term flood mitigation.
Despite this success, the program faces an uncertain future. Reports indicate that funding and staffing for FEMA have been cut, and numerous applications for mitigation grants, which include buyouts, have been denied or left pending. This has prompted calls from researchers to strengthen the program, not abandon it.
Staying Local, Moving to Safety
The study did offer some positive news. Regardless of whether they sold their home or took a buyout, most people did not move far. The average relocation distance was just 5 to 10 miles, allowing families to maintain local ties to work, schools, and community networks.
Furthermore, nearly all of these moves resulted in families relocating to homes with minimal risk of future flooding, according to data from the First Street Foundation. This shows that when people do move, they are actively seeking safer ground.
Building a More Resilient Future
The continued practice of selling high-risk homes is a game of climate roulette that communities cannot afford to play long-term. As storms intensify and flood insurance costs rise, the market for these properties may shrink, leaving homeowners with fewer options.
Experts suggest that expanding voluntary federal, state, and local buyout programs is essential. By making these programs more attractive and flexible—for example, by giving residents a longer period to decide after a disaster—more homeowners might choose to participate.
This strategic retreat would allow communities to collectively plan for safer land use, reduce future disaster costs, and break the cycle of damage and repair that has become all too common in flood-prone regions across America.
