More than one-third of Manhattan condo apartments sold in the past year have resulted in a financial loss for sellers. This trend highlights a stagnant market where median prices per square foot have remained largely unchanged over the last decade, defying a national surge in home values.
Key Takeaways
- Over 33% of Manhattan condo resales between July 2024 and June 2025 resulted in a loss for sellers.
- The median price per square foot for Manhattan condos is flat compared to a decade ago.
- Sellers who bought after 2016 faced the highest risk of losses.
- The luxury market, specifically properties over $10 million, showed consistent profits.
- High transaction costs and inflation further erode returns for many sellers.
A Decade of Stagnation in Manhattan
Despite frequent headlines about record-breaking sales and rising prices, the reality for many Manhattan condo owners is different. A recent report from Brown Harris Stevens indicates that the median price per square foot for condos in the borough has remained essentially flat over the last ten years. This stability contrasts sharply with the national housing market, where prices have risen significantly since the pandemic, leading to a widespread affordability crisis.
According to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, a real estate research firm, "For the last decade, Manhattan has essentially been moving sideways." This observation underscores a unique market dynamic not seen in much of the United States.
Did You Know?
Only 2% of home sellers nationally who purchased before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss, according to Redfin. This highlights Manhattan's distinct market performance.
When Timing Was Everything for Sellers
The timing of a condo purchase in Manhattan has proven to be a critical factor in determining profitability. Owners who bought their properties before 2010 have fared the best. Their median gains on sales over the past year ranged between 29% and 45%, according to the Brown Harris report.
Prices in Manhattan started to recover after the financial crisis, peaking around 2016. This means that those who bought between 2011 and 2015 saw more modest gains, averaging around 11%. The most challenging period for buyers was after 2016. Half of the buyers who acquired properties between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss during the surveyed period.
Impact of Additional Costs
The reported losses do not fully account for all expenses associated with property ownership and sale. Transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10% of the sale price. These include broker fees, transfer taxes, and legal fees. Furthermore, renovations, maintenance fees, and property taxes are not factored into the loss calculations.
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University, highlighted the impact of inflation. He noted that inflation has increased by 36% over the past decade. "So if I had invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (close to the peak) and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price, a 0% nominal return, I actually lost 36% in real terms," he explained. This challenges the common belief that real estate serves as a good inflation hedge.
National Contrast
In contrast to Manhattan, the Case-Shiller national home price index rose by 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025. This shows a stark difference in real estate appreciation across the country.
Reasons Behind Manhattan's "Lost Decade"
Several factors have contributed to the stagnation in Manhattan condo prices. The cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, implemented in 2018, placed significant pressure on prices and demand. A new rent law introduced in 2019 also played a role.
The initial migration of some high-income earners to states like Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic also fueled concerns about the city's real estate market. However, population and demand quickly rebounded after the initial downturn.
- SALT Deduction Cap: Limited tax benefits for homeowners.
- 2019 Rent Law: Impacted rental market dynamics.
- COVID-19 Migration: Initial fears of exodus, though population rebounded.
The Resilient Luxury Market
One segment of the Manhattan market has consistently defied the downward trend: luxury properties. Those who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more reported double-digit profits, regardless of their initial purchase date. This top-tier market segment appears insulated from broader economic fluctuations.
Brokers and analysts attribute this resilience to several factors. The increasing concentration of wealth at the top, strong performance in stock markets, and sustained demand from buyers less affected by economic cycles have powered continuous gains in the luxury sector.
"The higher end has fared better over the decade, especially in, let’s say, the top 4% of the market," said Jonathan Miller. "The reason is Wall Street and financial markets. And the ability to buy in cash, independent of interest rates."
Cash transactions are a significant feature of the Manhattan luxury market. Two-thirds of apartment deals in the third quarter were conducted in cash, far exceeding the historical average of approximately 53%. This demonstrates the market's continued reliance on wealthy buyers who do not need mortgages.
Future Outlook and Buyer Hesitation
Despite the challenges, some real estate professionals remain optimistic. Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens and a co-author of the report, expressed a positive outlook. "I’m bullish and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate," he stated. He suggested that while some individuals may have lost money, the losses were often negligible, underscoring the "blue chip" nature of the Manhattan market.
Sellers who purchased during the market dip in late 2020 and early 2021 are also likely to see profits when they decide to sell. However, many potential buyers are currently choosing to rent, even if they can afford to buy. The number of households in New York City earning over $1 million annually who are renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, reaching 5,661, according to a report from RentCafe.
Recent data also shows a cooling in the high-end market. Signed contracts for apartments priced at $4 million or more fell by 39% in September, following increases in July and August. Brokers attribute this decline primarily to a rapid decrease in inventory and a lack of new condo developments, rather than a drop in demand or political uncertainty.
While there are always policy risks, Miller noted that such fears often prove to be overstated in the long run. The Manhattan real estate market continues to be a complex landscape, balancing unique local factors with broader economic forces.
