The Davis Joint Unified School District (DJUSD) is confronting a severe enrollment decline driven by soaring housing costs and lower birth rates, a trend that could force the closure of up to three schools. District officials have initiated a series of community meetings to discuss the challenging road ahead, framing the issue as a direct consequence of the city's housing affordability crisis.
For more than a decade, the number of students in Davis schools has been shrinking. The district has already lost 300 students since 2019 and projects a further decline of approximately 1,000 students over the next ten years if significant new housing is not developed. This sustained drop in enrollment is creating significant financial pressure on the district's operations.
Key Takeaways
- Davis Joint Unified School District may close one to three schools due to declining enrollment.
- The district has lost 300 students since 2019 and could lose 1,000 more in the next decade.
- High housing costs are preventing teachers and young families from living in Davis, directly impacting student numbers.
- Superintendent Matt Best is advocating for a transparent, 18-month community engagement process before any decisions are made for the 2028-29 school year.
- The district is exploring its own workforce housing solutions, including below-market rentals and down-payment assistance for staff.
A Crisis Rooted in Real Estate
Superintendent Matt Best has highlighted the direct link between the city's housing market and the health of its schools. He shared his own experience as a young teacher at Davis High School, when he had to purchase a home in West Sacramento with two other colleagues because they could not afford to live in the community they served.
This situation has become commonplace for district employees. "I don't want to pay 3 grand in rent on a dump and live with two other grown adults," Best said, recounting the sentiment he hears repeatedly from staff. "We can buy a 3,500-square-foot house 20 minutes away."
The exodus of young families and school staff has created a demographic shift that is now threatening the viability of neighborhood schools. The district has warned that elementary schools with fewer than 350 students are difficult to sustain financially, as operational costs outpace funding based on attendance.
The Broader Challenge: Staffing and Retention
Beyond enrollment, the housing crisis exacerbates a looming teacher shortage. The district expects over 50% of its staff to retire in the next five years. Simultaneously, there is a statewide gap of about 50,000 between the demand for new teachers and the number graduating from credentialing programs. High living costs make it nearly impossible to attract and retain new talent, forcing the district to rely heavily on teaching interns.
Navigating a Difficult Conversation
To address the issue head-on, the district has proposed two potential school closure scenarios and is seeking public input over the next 18 months. Any closures would not take effect before the 2028-29 school year. The schools identified on the initial list for consideration are Patwin and Birch Lane elementary schools.
Superintendent Best emphasized the importance of a prolonged and inclusive discussion. He explained that waiting until the last minute would leave the community feeling powerless.
"This is a town that likes to talk things through, and we honestly get our best solutions that way," Best stated. "The alternative... is it's happening to you instead of happening with you."
The district's board will evaluate six core assumptions based on community feedback, which will guide the final decision. These assumptions touch on facility funding, grade configurations, and the preservation of choice programs.
Six Assumptions Guiding the Process
- Current facility funds will be used until 2030, with no new bond measures sought immediately.
- The district will avoid increasing grade transitions to maintain students' sense of belonging.
- Campuses serving the most disadvantaged students will remain open.
- A consistent school model will be applied across the district, despite varied enrollment declines.
- Elementary schools with fewer than 350 students are considered not financially viable.
- The district will aim to preserve existing choice programs.
Searching for Solutions
While the conversation around closures continues, DJUSD is proactively exploring ways to address the root cause: the lack of affordable housing for its employees. Most district staff earn too much to qualify for traditional affordable housing programs but not enough to afford market-rate homes in Davis.
In response, the district is considering several workforce housing initiatives. These include developing rental options priced 30 to 50 percent below market rates and establishing a housing trust to provide employees with down-payment assistance.
Best described the school district's situation as a "forcing function" for the city's housing policies. He suggested that if the city cannot create affordable options, the school district must find its own solutions to retain its workforce.
The superintendent challenged the broader community to define its future. "What sort of vision does the city have for itself?" he asked. "Because I don't sense that vision currently." The fate of Davis schools, he argued, is intrinsically tied to the community's willingness to confront its housing challenges.
Even if proposed housing developments like Willowgrove and Village Farms are approved, the district projects that enrollment will only return to current levels after an initial dip. Reaching pre-pandemic student numbers appears unlikely, meaning that even with new housing, difficult decisions about school consolidation may still be necessary.
