Ryan Serhant, founder of the real estate brokerage SERHANT., has made a bold prediction for the future of the industry, stating that by 2030, only two major firms will dominate the market: Compass and his own. This vision is backed by a recent $45 million investment into his company, aimed at developing an advanced artificial intelligence platform designed to reshape how real estate agents work.
Speaking at the Inman Connect conference in New York, Serhant outlined a future where his firm focuses on empowering individual agents through technology, setting up a direct rivalry with Compass's property-centric platform model. The new funding, he revealed, is accelerating the creation of an AI ecosystem intended to multiply agent productivity rather than replace them.
Key Takeaways
- Ryan Serhant predicts that by 2030, only his firm, SERHANT., and Compass will be the two dominant players in real estate.
- The company recently secured a $45 million investment, a development highlighted in the season finale of the show "Owning Manhattan."
- The investment is funding S.MPLE, an AI platform designed to act as a team of virtual assistants for agents, automating administrative tasks.
- Serhant's goal is to make agents "AI-empowered," shifting the focus from simply being "tech-enabled."
- The firm is also looking ahead at the changing desires of younger consumers, questioning the future of homeownership as a primary life goal.
A Two-Firm Race to the Top
During a discussion on stage, Ryan Serhant presented a clear vision of the real estate landscape over the next decade. He forecasts a consolidation of power, leaving most current firms as mere afterthoughts.
"I do think that by 2030, there will only be two major real estate firms of note," Serhant stated. "One will be Compass, and one will be us."
He differentiated the two companies by their core philosophies. According to Serhant, Compass is built around "property as a platform," while his brokerage is centered on "the person as a platform." This distinction highlights his strategy of investing heavily in the tools and support systems for individual agents.
"Everybody else, I’m sorry to say, I think will be an afterthought," he added, expressing immense confidence in his company's trajectory and the innovations currently in development.
The $45 Million AI Investment
A significant catalyst for this ambitious plan is a newly secured $45 million investment. Serhant revealed that the funding deal was the dramatic event that capped the second season of his television series, "Owning Manhattan."
This capital injection is being channeled directly into the development of S.MPLE, SERHANT.'s proprietary artificial intelligence ecosystem. The platform is designed to offload the burdensome administrative tasks that often consume an agent's time.
The Power of AI Empowerment
Serhant's vision moves beyond the current industry standard of being "tech-enabled." He argues that in today's market, having technology is a given. The next frontier, he believes, is becoming "AI-empowered," where artificial intelligence actively multiplies an agent's capabilities.
"My goal is not to replace salespeople; it is to multiply them," Serhant explained. He contrasted this with what he described as a common sentiment among competitors who, behind closed doors, discuss technology as a means to replace agents entirely.
How the S.MPLE Platform Works
The S.MPLE platform functions as what Serhant calls "a team of AI agents" for every human agent at his firm. The concept is to provide on-demand support for a wide range of tasks, freeing up agents to focus on clients and sales.
He compared the system to a food delivery service. "[It’s] like DoorDash for work. What you care about is the delivery, and you don’t have to go do the shopping... if you don’t want to."
The platform is being developed in phases. The initial stages focused on teaching agents how to effectively delegate tasks to their AI assistants, such as:
- Scheduling buyer tours
- Creating listing presentations
- Running comparative market analyses (CMAs)
The latest phase, however, will reverse this dynamic. The AI will proactively guide agents, telling them what they should focus on each day to be most effective. "It’s a completely new world," Serhant said, emphasizing the freedom this model gives him to innovate for the direct benefit of his agents.
A Young and Future-Focused Brokerage
The strategic direction of SERHANT. is also influenced by its agent demographic. The average age of an agent at the firm is 28, significantly younger than the industry average. This has prompted the company to think deeply about the future of real estate from the perspective of the next generation of buyers and sellers.
Questioning the Future of Homeownership
Serhant's forward-looking approach extends beyond internal technology to the fundamental motivations of future clients. He is actively questioning whether the traditional dream of homeownership will hold the same power for younger generations.
"A 28-year-old today who’s not in this business, what do you think the dream is? Very rarely do we see someone say ‘homeownership’ the way they used to."
This perspective drives his firm to consider what the home purchasing process will look like in the coming years, who will be making the decisions, and what they will value. He believes the industry must adapt to these potential shifts rather than relying on past trends.
By preparing for a future where consumer priorities may change and by empowering a younger generation of agents with powerful AI tools, Serhant is positioning his firm to not just compete, but to define the next era of real estate.
